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The news on Thursday August 21, 2008

US to base missiles 115 miles from Russia

Poland and the United States risked igniting a new missile crisis with Russia as their foreign ministers today signed a deal to station part of an American defence shield on Polish soil, manned by US soldiers, 115 miles from the Russian border.

Russia has refused to believe American reassurances that the 10 interceptor rockets in Poland are part of a defensive shield and say that they would threaten Russian territory. The rockets, combined with a radar complex in the Czech Republic are to form the European end of a global system which according to the US would be aimed at ballistic missiles from Iran or North Korea.

In return for the agreement to host part of the shield, Poland managed to secure a US promise of a battery of Patriot missiles to be permanently based on Polish territory as a defence against possible Russian attack. About 110-120 American soldiers would be deployed at the interceptor base in northern Poland, and US soldiers would also operate the Patriot missiles.

When the deal was announced last week, it drew the threat of possible nuclear strikes against Poland by the deputy military chief of staff in Moscow, who vowed that such an act would “not go unpunished.” Last night, the Russian foreign ministry warned that Russia’s reaction would go beyond diplomatic protests.

Independent, 20/8/08

'Dirty division' raid Sunni politician

Iraq’s prime minister ordered an investigation on Tuesday into a violent government raid in Diyala Province earlier in the day that left one provincial official dead and another under arrest. His rapid response reflected fears that the raid, reminiscent of the sectarian attacks once carried out regularly by Shiite-dominated security forces, could inflame sectarian tensions in the fragile province.

In the raid, Iraqi security forces burst into the Diyala provincial headquarters to arrest a Sunni member of the provincial council but ended up firing at a federal lawmaker and later engaging in a 30-minute gun battle with the local police on the streets of Baquba. The secretary of the provincial governor was killed at the headquarters.

It is still unclear who ordered the raid. Some witnesses, both Sunni and Shiite Muslim, said that some of the troops told witnesses during the operation that they were “the dirty division” and were acting on behalf of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, who leads a Shiite-dominated government. Several security officials identified them as a special antiterrorism force.

New York Times, 19/8/08

An escalation of war in Afghanistan

Taliban insurgents mounted their most serious attacks in six years of fighting in Afghanistan over the last two days, including a coordinated assault by at least 10 suicide bombers against one of the largest American military bases in the country, and another by about 100 insurgents who killed 10 elite French paratroopers.

The attack on the French, in a district near Kabul, added to the sense of siege around the capital and was the deadliest single loss for foreign troops in a ground battle since the United States-led invasion chased the Taliban from power in 2001.

Taken together, the attacks were part of a sharp escalation in fighting as insurgents have seized a window of opportunity to press their campaign this summer — taking advantage of a wavering NATO commitment, an outgoing American administration, a flailing Afghan government and a Pakistani government in deep disarray that has given the militants freer rein across the border.

As a result, this year is on pace to be the deadliest in the Afghan war so far, as the insurgent attacks show rising zeal and sophistication.

New York Times, 19/8/08

Musharraf's resignation weakens US influence

The resignation of President Musharraf removes from Pakistan’s political stage the leader who for nearly nine years served as one of the United States’ most important — and ultimately unreliable — allies. And it now leaves American officials to deal with a new, elected coalition that has so far proved itself to be unwilling or unable to confront an expanding Taliban insurgency determined to topple the government.

A main challenge for Washington now will be to fix the attention of the two leaders of the coalition parties, Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, on the raging Taliban insurgency that not only threatens American soldiers in Afghanistan but also threatens to destabilize Pakistan itself.

The campaign against the militants is unpopular here in Pakistan because it is seen as an American conflict foisted on the country.

New York imes, 18/8/08

British troops kill 4 Afghan civilians...

Four civilians, including two children, were killed in a rocket attack by British troops in Afghanistan, the Ministry of Defence said last night. The MoD has launched an investigation into the incident, which left two other children seriously injured.

Troops on a routine patrol fired rockets after intercepting a radio message calling for insurgents to converge on the area, a spokesman for the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said.

"Isaf deeply regrets the tragedy of this incident, when women and children were killed and injured as a result of an imminent insurgent attack from a position where they would have known women and children were present. The enemies of Afghanistan have yet again shown a complete disregard for the lives of the innocent, who they claim to fight for."

Guardian, 18/8/08

...and plan to extend 'decapitation' strategy

Britain's special forces are to play a key role in a newly-planned "surge" against Taliban forces in Afghanistan. SAS and SBS troops are to be used to dramatically expand the Army's "decapitation" strategy working alongside US Marines against the Taliban leadership.

The operation will coincide with an increase in troop numbers in the country. American forces are expected to expand by a third while the numbers of British troops will also rise as more forces are pulled out of Iraq.

The plans reflect deep unease in Washington and London at the political turmoil in Pakistan under its fractured four-month-old civilian government, which could now deepen with the power struggle expected to follow the resignation of the President, Pervez Musharraf.

According to senior defence sources, all the intelligence and analysis points to a further "implosion of security" in Pakistan, allowing Islamist groups to use the frontier area to step up attacks into Afghanistan.

The former military leader had been a key ally of the West in the "war on terror" and had turned a blind eye to American air strikes on insurgents inside Pakistan. He stepped down yesterday before he could be impeached.

The "decapitation" strategy is aimed at destroying the Taliban leadership after Nato commanders realised that killed or captured foot soldiers were being replaced by indoctrinated "fighters" from madrasas in Pakistan.

Independent, 19/8/08

Exhausted US slow to respond on Georgia

So far, reaction in the US to Russia’s invasion of Georgia has been all Vladimir Putin could have wished. Exhausted in every way by its experience in Iraq (a failure not much mitigated by recent progress there), its authority and sense of purpose quite depleted, the US looked slower and less decisive than Europe in its initial response, and that is saying something.

It is easy to account for this lassitude and lack of self-confidence. The US feels anything but strong these days. Iraq has strained its armed forces to such a point that it cannot commit adequate resources even to its struggle to stabilise Afghanistan, which would otherwise be an immediate and high priority. Aside from the human cost of the Iraq mission, Americans are also preoccupied with its enormous fiscal burden. Just last week, Barack Obama’s campaign again underlined how much it is counting on savings from a withdrawal from Iraq to pay for expanded domestic spending. The country has a new set of priorities.

Even more telling, though, is the erosion of its moral assurance and sense of purpose in the world. The instant reaction of many of the administration’s critics was to say: “We invaded Iraq without justification. We have no standing to object if Russia does the same to Georgia.” Andrew Sullivan, a prominent conservative blogger and a one-time supporter of the Iraq war, wrote: “Maybe we should start complaining when as many Georgians have perished as Iraqis – and when Putin throws thousands of innocent Georgians into torture chambers.”

Financial Times, 17/8/08

Iraq to abandon short-term oil contracts

Iraq is likely to abandon plans to sign up to $3 billion in short-term oil contracts, a U.S. diplomat said, putting in doubt deals that would give foreign oil firms their first major foothold in the country for decades.

"It appears that on present form (the Iraqi government) probably won't proceed with most of these or all of them," Charles Ries, coordinator for Iraq's economic transition at the U.S. embassy, told reporters in Baghdad on Sunday.

Ries declined to speculate when the law, which he described as a "a major political challenge, not a technocratic question", might finally be passed.

"The process of moving from a state-controlled sector to a sector that is a mixed one, allowing for participation for foreign investors in some form or fashion, has been slower and more halting than we would have liked," he said.

Reuters, 17/8/08

Blackwater guards may face trial

Iraq has said that it reserves the right to try six guards working for the private security firm Blackwater USA for their alleged role in the killing of 17 Iraqis in Baghdad last year.

"There is information that half a dozen Blackwater guards who have been accused of shooting and killing 17 Iraqis are to be tried in Washington," government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said. "The Iraqi Government stresses its rights and that Blackwater guards have committed crimes against Iraqi victims. The Government reserves the right to prosecute them,"Mr Dabbagh said.

On September 16, the Blackwater guards shot dead 17 Iraqi civilians while escorting an American diplomatic convoy through Baghdad. Blackwater says its guards were acting in self-defence.

Mr Dabbagh's comment came after the Washington Post reported yesterday that six Blackwater guards had received "target letters" from the US Justice Department in a probe of the shootings. Such letters are often considered a prelude to indictment, the report said, adding the guards were former US military personnel.

Despite strong opposition, the US Department of State earlier this year renewed a contract with Blackwater to protect American officials in Iraq.

Foreign security companies at present are not subject to Iraq law, but at the same time are not governed by US military tribunals, effectively allowing them to operate with impunity.

Among the sticking points in complex negotiations aimed at striking a new US-Iraqi security deal has been the issue of whether and what immunity US troops should continue to have.

News.com.au 17/8/08

British troops to leave in Iraq next year

The vast majority of British troops serving in Iraq will be withdrawn in the next nine months, senior defence sources have revealed. Just a few hundred soldiers will remain after spring 2009 effectively bringing to an end this country’s involvement in Iraq after six years of fighting.

The Ministry of Defence insisted the move was backed by the US which it said is “intimately involved” in discussions about the British withdrawal. There are still currently more than 4,000 British troops stationed in southern Iraq despite pledges from the Prime Minister that numbers would have reduced by now. Mr Brown has been careful over the past few months not to put a timetable on British withdrawal but sources gave the clearest indication yet that our involvement is poised to end.

However, many soldiers are set to be redeployed quickly in Afghanistan where fighting has intensified against the Taliban. Col Tim Collins, who commanded an infantry battalion during the 2003 invasion, said for Britain to win back the respect and trust of the Americans after the “defeat” in Basra it would need to “step up to the mark” in Afghanistan.

Daily Telegraph, 15/8/08

US blocks Iranian oil deal with Turkey

Turkey delivered a humiliating snub to Iran's visiting president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, yesterday by backing out of a lucrative energy deal under pressure from the US government, which feared it would enhance Iranian nuclear ambitions.

Signing the £1.87bn agreement to provide Turkey with Iranian natural gas - on which memoranda of understanding had already been agreed - was to have been the crowning achievement of Ahmadinejad's two-day visit to Istanbul, which Turkish officials had agreed to after intense Iranian lobbying.

Iran is Turkey's second-biggest energy supplier after Russia and has been seeking to woo Turkish investment in its South Pars gas fields. But as Ahmadinejad met his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gül, at Ciragan Palace in Istanbul, it emerged that US intervention had effectively torpedoed a deal.

Turkish officials had earlier cited Iranian pricing and investment conditions as a reason for stalling. However, that appeared to be a smokescreen aimed at disguising Turkish deference to American demands. A western diplomatic source told the Guardian that Turkey had pledged not to sign any major energy deals with Iran in return for Washington's blessing for Ahmadinejad's visit after Bush administration officials privately criticised it.

Guardian, 15/8/08

Georgia war puts more pressure on US in Iraq

Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, is being forced to grapple with one of the unexpected byproducts of the conflict in Georgia: His plan to withdraw American forces in Iraq was predicated on all partner nations keeping their troop levels intact.

With nearly 2,000 Georgian troops returning home in the midst of the crisis there, the coalition has lost what one senior military official called one of the largest and most capable contributions to the Iraq effort. As a result, the official said, Petraeus is now assessing whether he will have to change his plans, including possibly delaying the return home of some U.S. forces this year.

Los Angeles Times, 15/8/08

Bomb kills 26

A woman suicide bomber struck Shiite pilgrims south of Baghdad on Thursday, killing 26 people and wounding scores of others after the government announced new measures to protect worshippers ahead of a major religious festival.

At least 75 people were wounded in the blast, according to a senior provincial security official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to release the information. He said police believed the bomber was a woman based on witness reports.

The fact that such a brazen attack could take place in an area where U.S. and Iraqi officials had touted major security improvements is an ominous sign of the risks still posed by extremists.

Associated Press, 15/8/08

Britain to leave 'booming' Basra

The majority of British troops serving in Iraq will be withdrawn by the middle of next year because the southern port city of Basra - where they are based - is booming, it was claimed today.

Major General Barney White-Spunner, who has just returned from commanding British forces in southern Iraq, told the Guardian the UK was "getting close to what we set out to achieve". And he painted a rosy picture of life in Basra, with house prices rocketing, restaurants opening and foreign investors beginning to move in.

But Major General White-Spunner's assessment differs from that given by recent visitors to the area, including journalist John Humphrys. Last month Humphrys described the city as "hell on earth".

Writing in the Mail on Sunday, he said: "Talk of reconstruction rings hollow when you drive through the streets of this shattered city, stumble on the broken pavements, curse yet another power cut, recoil at the brown sludge that appears when you turn on a tap."

Major General White-Spunner said Basra's port of Umm Qasr was "booming", with major international oil companies lining up to invest in the region.

Independent, 15/8/08

Abuse of detainees continues

Six sailors working as prison camp guards in Iraq face courts martial for abusing detainees, some of whom were sealed in a cell with pepper spray, the U.S. Navy said on Thursday.

Seven other sailors were given non-judicial punishments over the incident, which took place on May 14 at Camp Bucca, the vast desert camp in southern Iraq where the U.S. military houses 18,000 of its 21,000 prisoners.

Reuters, 14/8/08

Britain and US deny interfering in Pakistan

British and American diplomats are attempting to find an exit for Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, a staunch western ally, before he is dragged through a humiliating impeachment process.

"We're being told [by western envoys] that it's not going to bring more stability to have a long trial. And that it is in the interests of stability for him to exit," said one senior coalition politician.

Sir Mark Lyall Grant, director of political affairs at the British Foreign Office, currently in Pakistan, is said to spearheading the message of caution. Lyall Grant met Asif Zardari, leader of the Pakistan People's Party, one of the two big parties in the coalition, on Tuesday night at the British high commission. He held a separate meeting with Sherry Rehman, a senior minister, and he also saw Musharraf, the FCO confirmed.

American diplomats are also engaged in an intensive round of meetings. The deputy US ambassador, Peter Bodde, is understood to have met Zardari in the last couple of days. American ambassador Anne Patterson saw Nisar Ali Khan, a senior member of Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League-N, the other main group in the coalition. Sources in Sharif's party said her message was: "Give Musharraf safe passage."

However, spokesmen for both the British and US missions denied that they were seeking to interfere. Aidan Liddle, a spokesman for the British embassy, said: "We are very clear that we have no role to play in this impeachment process. Britain has no interest in talking about the fate of individuals."

Guardian, 14/8/08

Russia calls the shots

The French-brokered truce between Russia and Georgia early today leaves Moscow calling the shots in the energy-rich Black Sea littoral and Caspian Basin. The quick and easy victory exposes the west's lack of leverage over Russia, despite years of American political investment in Georgia.

The impact of Mikheil Saakashvili's rash gamble in storming South Ossetia last week, and of Vladimir Putin's comprehensive rout of the Georgians, will ripple in many directions. In less than a week, Putin has redrawn the geopolitical map of the contested region between Russia, Turkey and Iran.

"We don't look very good," said a former Pentagon official long involved in Georgia. "We've been working on Georgia for four years and we've failed."

While Russia walks tall, Saakashvili will struggle to survive. The Europeans are already divided; Nato splits over Georgia and Ukraine will widen. American policies in the region have been severely set back. Western energy policy is looking flaky.

A main objective for Putin was to destabilise Georgia to invalidate its aim of joining Nato. He may have succeeded.

Guardian 13/8/08

US military to deliver Georgian relief aid

President Bush said the U.S. military will lead a humanitarian aid effort to Georgia and that he expects Russia to withdraw all troops sent into the country since fighting started. U.S. air and naval forces will help to deliver aid, he said.

By using the military to deliver humanitarian relief and dispatching Condoleeza Rice to Tbilisi, Bush is signaling the U.S. is firmly committed to Georgia and to exerting its own influence in the region, said Cliff Kupchan of New York-based Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.

The moves are "a symbolic shot across the bow that enough's enough," Kupchan said. "It's as much pushback with hardware as the U.S. can, or should, muster at this point."

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said sending U.S. navy ships to the region wouldn't be "the best way'" to deliver humanitarian aid.

Bloomberg.com 13/8/08

Iraq oil contracts with west are stalled...

Oil negotiations between a handful of foreign companies and the government here appear stalled, setting back once again efforts to open up Iraqi oil fields to international companies.

A petroleum law that would provide a legal framework for foreign investment has long languished in Parliament. Still, momentum had built up in the spring and early summer for a series of limited so-called technical-service contracts negotiated between a group of major oil companies and the Iraqi Oil Ministry.

The Oil Ministry, which had been championing the deals for months, is now balking. Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahrastani in an interview said that is because the companies are insisting that part of the payment for the consulting work be in oil, and the foreign companies want preferential treatment for future oil-exploration deals.

Political sensitivities in Baghdad also appear to be in play. After wresting control of its oil resources from Western powers decades ago, many Iraqis are still loath to see foreign companies back.

Wall Street Journal, 13/8/08

...as China signs $1.2billion deal

Iraq and China are set to revive a $1.2 billion oil deal that was cancelled after the 2003 United States-led invasion, Iraq's Oil Ministry said yesterday. An initial agreement with China is expected to be signed this month to develop the billion-barrel Ahdab oil field south of Baghdad.

"Iraq and China are keen to show their co-operation by finalising an agreement on developing the Ahdab oil field," the ministry said. If the deal is signed it will be the first Saddam Hussein-era oil deal to be honoured by the new Iraqi regime.

New Zealand Herald, 12/8/08

Afghans at British base beg for protection

The company that provides services and logistics for the British army has come under fire for ignoring the increasing security needs of its local staff in Afghanistan as the Taliban steps up its attacks on army support employees.

Up to 400 Afghan staff working for KBR at the Camp Bastion base in Helmand, south Afghanistan, have been barred from joining flights to Kandahar and told they must travel by road - one of the most dangerous journeys in the country.

The Taliban is known to be targeting local staff who work for the British or US army as traitors, but this summer has seen an unprecedented number of attacks against caterers, mechanics and interpreters who all work at the base, with 10 staff being killed in July alone.

Ahmed (not his real name) said he was too scared to leave the base despite the fact that he had not seen his family for more than six months. "My family does not know whether I am dead or alive. We are not allowed to use phones so I was looking forward to my holiday. But now I am too scared to leave because the Taliban are waiting just outside and I will get killed," he said.

He offered money to KBR to join any flight to Kandahar, he said, but was told it was not possible. "My boss said the flights are for priority staff only. It seems some human life is more valuable than others."

Guardian, 12/8/08

Use of contractors in Iraq costs $100 billion

The United States this year will have spent $100 billion on contractors in Iraq since the invasion in 2003, a milestone that reflects the Bush administration’s unprecedented level of dependence on private firms for help in the war, according to a government report to be released Tuesday.

The report, by the Congressional Budget Office, according to people with knowledge of its contents, will say that one out of every five dollars spent on the war in Iraq has gone to contractors for the United States military and other government agencies, in a war zone where employees of private contractors now outnumber American troops.

The Pentagon’s reliance on outside contractors in Iraq is proportionately far larger than in any previous conflict, and it has fueled charges that this outsourcing has led to overbilling, fraud and shoddy and unsafe work that has endangered and even killed American troops.

The role of armed security contractors has also raised new legal and political questions about whether the United States has become too dependent on private armed forces on the 21st-century battlefield.

New York Times, 11/8/08

Ossetia referendum ignored

Georgian President, Mikhail Saakashvili, has set his sights on bringing the two breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia back under Georgian control, and tensions have risen since his election in 2004.

In 2006 another referendum on autonomy was held in the region, after South Ossetia failed to get recognition for the results of their first referendum back in 1992. However, despite 99 per cent of those who voted choosing independence, and 34 monitors from several different countries observing proceedings, it has still failed to gain recognition abroad.

Channel 4 News, 11/8/08

Money as a weapon system

A U.S. Army program in which soldiers pay cash to Iraqis to help with expenses, large and small, has spent $2.8 billion in five years, The Washington Post reported Monday. The Post reviewed records of the Commander's Emergency Response Program, which was intended for short-term humanitarian relief and reconstruction.

The field manual laying out the guidelines for the program is called "Money as a Weapon System," pointing up the effectiveness of cold hard cash in winning over the hearts and minds of Iraqi civilians.

The largest sum of CERP money, $596.8 million, was spent on water and sanitation projects, the Post reported. Three other categories each received more than $300 million: electricity, protective measures (such as fencing and guards), and transportation and roads.

But the Army also spent lesser sums on smaller acts of largesse, including $48,000 for children's shoes; $50,000 for 625 sheep; $100,000 for dolls; and $500,000 for action figures designed to look like Iraqi security forces, the Post reported.

Associated Press, 11/8/08

Political turmoil in Pakistan

Pressure is mounting on Pakistan's beleaguered President Pervez Musharraf from his own allies to step down before the ruling coalition tries to impeach him this month, officials said on Sunday.

Pakistan has been in political turmoil since early last year. The United States and its allies fear a prolonged political and constitutional crisis will lead to instability in the nuclear-armed state and partner of Washington in its war on terror, and uncertainty has unsettled markets and investors.

The governing coalition led by the party of slain former prime minister Benazir Bhutto decided on Thursday to move to impeach Musharraf, saying he plunged Pakistan into political and economic crises during nearly nine years of single-handed rule.

Western countries worry political uncertainty will distract Pakistan from fighting al Qaeda, the Taliban and other Islamist factions whose influence has spread across the northwest of the Muslim country and who use Pakistan as a base for operations in Afghanistan.

Reuters 10/8/08

Oil pipeline at centre of Ossetia issue...

The gas and oil pipelines that run through Georgia are of strategic importance to Western Europe because they reduce dependence on Russian supplies and do not cross Russian territory.

Two major pipelines take supplies from the oil and gas fields in the Azeri region of the Caspian Sea through the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. From there they head south, away from the breakaway South Ossetia region and into Turkey, then onwards into the European Union.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, led by BP, was opened in 2006 and is capable of pumping one million barrels per day of Azeri crude along the 1,040-mile route to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It is the first pipeline to carry large volumes of crude out of the Caspian without going through Russia. Yesterday Russian war planes dropped bombs near the pipeline, but caused no damage.

Russia's vast natural reserves have allowed it to position itself as a rival to Middle Eastern nations in supplying energy to the West. However, its hostility to BP and Shell, which had supplied investment to begin exploiting its resources, have spurred Europe to look for alternatives.

Daily Telegraph, 9/8/08

...which explains the US stance in the region...

For the United States, the key to the pipeline has been cementing firm relationships with the three states – Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan – through which the pipeline passes.

America has given generous aid to all three nations. It turned a blind eye to Turkish raids on Kurdish guerrillas in Iraq, was silent about rigged elections in Azerbaijan, and since 2002 has had US troops in Georgia training the locals. In April it backed Georgia's call to join Nato.

The Scotsman on Sunday, 10/8/08

...and Israeli involvement

"Georgian government officials used to tell me that they wanted to model their army after the Israeli Defence Force," former Israeli ambassador to Georgia Shabtai Zur told Ynet Sunday evening amid the country's bloody feud with Russia over the separatist region of South Ossetia.

The fighting which broke out over the weekend between Russia and Georgia has brought Israel's intensive involvement in the region into the limelight. This involvement includes the sale of advanced weapons to Georgia and the training of the Georgian army's infantry forces. The former envoy said the ongoing tension between Georgia and the separatist provinces brought Israeli experts to the area.

"The private company of Brig.-Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch (Galilee Division commander during the Second Lebanon War) has been operating in Georgia for some time now and is providing consultation to the Georgian army," he noted.

Ynet, Israel, 10/8/08

From Iraq to Ossetia

Half of Georgia’s 2,000 troops in Iraq plan to leave the country by Monday to join the fight against separatists in the breakaway province of South Ossetia, with the rest following as soon as possible, their commander said.

“First of all we need to remove 1,000 guys from here within 96 hours, after that the rest of the guys,” Colonel Bondo Maisuradze told The Times this morning.

“The US will provide us with the transportation,” he added.

Sunday Times, 10/8/08

al-Sadr broadens social role

Moktada al-Sadr, the anti-American Shiite cleric, said Friday that he would divide his Mahdi army militia in two: one elite unit of fighters and a group that would work on community and religious programs.

There have been previous signals that the Sadrists were shifting the emphasis from armed to community activities, as its militia found its operations increasingly curtailed by recent major American and Iraqi military operations in its strongholds, including Basra, Amara and the Sadr City district of Baghdad.

However the Sadrists remain a potent force on the streets. Tens of thousands turned out in the center of Sadr City for prayers on Friday, and the Iraqi Army kept its Humvees and armored vehicles well back, leaving Sadrist stewards to maintain order. As the crowd departed, many chanted: "No, no to America" and "No, no to occupation."

In Najaf, Sheik Salah al-Obaidi, the principal spokesman for Sadr, said that the remaining armed groups would "take direct orders from Sayyed Moktada al-Sadr only in emergency cases" and would "only target the American forces."

International Herald Tribune, 8/8/08

Iraqis say withdrawal deal is close

The Iraqi government said Thursday a deal with the U.S. was close at hand for the eventual withdrawal of American combat forces by 2010, and all U.S. forces three years after that. The Associated Press reported that it was told of the agreement by two unnamed Iraqi officials, but added the U.S. government said no firm dates had been agreed upon.

According to the report, the agreement calls for parts of the Green Zone - where the U.S. embassy is located - to be turned over to Iraqi control by the end of 2008. It also calls for the removal of U.S. forces from Iraqi cities by June 30, 2009, said two senior Iraqi officials whom the AP said were close to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

If both sides agreed, the terms could be amended to keep U.S. forces in-country longer in what has been termed a "face-saving" clause should security conditions worsen.

Iraqi and U.S. officials both agreed the deal was not final. A major sticking point is immunity from prosecution for American forces under Iraqi law.

NewsroomAmerica.com, 7/8/08

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