These are the archives for the week ending 1st December 2006
Blair insists NATO winning in Afghanistan
Tony Blair made the startling claim yesterday that Britain and other Nato members were 'winning' the war in Afghanistan despite increased Taliban activity and a sharply rising death toll.
Doubts about the operation have grown this year as a result of a resurgence in Taliban operations that has left thousands of Afghans dead, as well as Nato troops.
But Mr Blair, who along with George Bush is among the most bullish of the Nato leaders about the prospects for Afghanistan, said: "I think there is a sense that this mission in Afghanistan is not yet won, but is winnable and, indeed, we are winning".
Guardian 30/11/06
Maliki cancels meeting with Bush
Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq and King Abdullah II of Jordan abruptly backed out of a meeting with President Bush on Wednesday, leaving the White House scrambling to explain why a carefully planned summit meeting had suddenly been cut from two days to one.
The decision occurred on a day that a classified White House memorandum expressing doubts about Mr. Maliki was disclosed and after Iraqi officials loyal to a powerful Shiite cleric said they were suspending participation in the Maliki government because he had ignored their request to cancel the Bush meeting entirely
In Baghdad, the immediate effect of the walkout by officials loyal to Moktada al-Sadr, the anti-American Shiite cleric, was unclear. But the departure of the Sadr followers - 30 Parliament members and six ministers - raises questions about the viability of the fragile coalition government, made up of feuding blocs of religious Shiites, religious Sunni Arabs, Kurds and secularists.
The memo, written by the national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, said that while Mr. Maliki seemed to have good intentions when talking with Americans, "the reality on the streets suggests Maliki is either ignorant of what's going on, misrepresenting his intentions or that his capabilities are not yet sufficient."
New York Times, 29/11/06
British have been defeated in Basra
Anthony Cordesman, a senior military and national security analyst with the center, and a former director of intelligence assessment for the secretary of defense, says while U.S.-led coalition forces have focused military efforts on Baghdad and western al-Anbar province, militias now control much of southern Iraq.
"The British have essentially been defeated in Basra," he said. "It is under the control of two loosely coordinating Shi'ite Islamist extremist groups. The southeast of Iraq has essentially come under the control of various elements, which are only loosely tied to the central government. There is a process of ethnic and sectarian cleansing which extends far beyond Baghdad."
Voice of America, 29/11/06
US proposal could spark war in horn of Africa
A US-backed proposal to send African troops into Somalia to support the weak government raises the risk of triggering an all-out war with the Islamic courts that could destabilise the entire region, a leading thinktank said yesterday. The International Crisis Group warned that approval of the draft US resolution, to be presented to the UN security council tomorrow, would be viewed by the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia (Sics) as tantamount to a declaration of war.
While the mission's goal would be to strengthen the government and dissuade Sics - which enjoys local goodwill and controls most of south-central Somalia - from further expansion, the crisis group said the strategy would backfire. Most Somalis, including a significant chunk of the government, are deeply opposed to any foreign intervention. Sics has repeatedly stated it will wage "jihad" on any outside troops.
The US's support for the resolution has caused consternation among western diplomats dealing with Somalia, most of whom share the thinktank's prognosis if regional troops are to deployed. Previous US foreign policy decisions in the Horn of Africa have not helped engender trust. Washington's bungled policy of funding the Mogadishu warlords against the courts - which it accuses of harbouring al-Qaida militants - is credited with speeding the rise of Sics, which gained control of the capital in June and has since expanded rapidly.
Guardian, 28/11/06
US allies voting with their feet
A debate over whether to set a timetable for a phased withdrawal of US forces from Iraq is being preempted by key US allies who have announced plans to scale back their own forces over the next year, analysts say.
The latest and most important to announce was Britain, whose defense minister said Monday the 7,100-member British contingent will be scaled back "by a matter of thousands" by the end of next year. Poland, which commands a 2,000-strong multi-national division in southern Iraq, said Monday that its 880-man contingent will be out of Iraq by late 2007. Italy, once a mainstay of the coalition force with 3,000 troops in Iraq, has withdrawn all but 60 to 70 troops from the country and those will be gone by early December, said Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi.
Even as Washington debates what to do next, intensifying political pressure in coalition countries and a steadily worsening situation in Iraq are combining to narrow options and force decisions at an ever quickening pace.
"The implication we might draw from the decision of Italy, Poland, Britain to scale down or withdraw completely is that the situation was hopeless," said Loren Thompson, director of the Lexington Institute.
AFP, 27/11/06
Attacks swell militia ranks
Retaliatory attacks sparked by last week's massive bomb assault on a Shiite neighborhood here are driving more Iraqis into the ranks of sectarian militias amid rising distrust of government security forces, newly recruited gunmen and residents said Monday. Besieged Iraqis, many with no previous affiliation with established militias, are taking up arms, barricading their communities and joining new Shiite Muslim militia cells or increasingly militant Sunni Arab neighborhood-watch groups.
The mounting carnage is another sign that Iraq's civil war is gaining momentum faster than either the U.S. or Iraqi governments can respond. Sunnis have long complained that Shiite militias dominate the police force, and that members have committed thousands of death-squad slayings. Shiites say that the Iraqi army, with its many Sunni Arabs, has failed to guard their communities from attacks such as the series of car bombs Thursday.
Los Angeles Times, 28/11/06
UN extends occupation mandate
The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously Tuesday to extend the mandate of the 160,000-strong multinational force in Iraq for one year, acting quickly ahead of a key meeting between U.S. and Iraqi leaders aimed at halting escalating violence in the country and paving the way for a reduction of American troops.
The council responded to a request from Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who said a top government priority is to assume full responsibility for security and stability throughout the country but that it needs more time.
Forbes, 28/11/06
Media talks of 'civil war'...
Over White House objections, The New York Times and other U.S. news outlets have adopted the term "civil war" for the fighting in Iraq, reflecting a growing consensus that sectarian violence has engulfed the country. After NBC News' widely publicized decision on Monday to brand the conflict a civil war, several prominent newspapers, including the Los Angeles Times, pointed to their use of the phrase.
The Bush administration has for months resisted the notion that Iraq is embroiled in a civil war, a position analysts say is hard to justify. Experts predict a shift in language could deepen public discontent with U.S. involvement in Iraq. Analysts say the U.S. public will not tolerate troops being used as referees between warring Iraqi factions.
Reuters, 28/11/06
...as White House notes 'new phase'
White House national security adviser Stephen Hadley dismissed the notion that civil war has begun in Iraq. "The Iraqis don't talk of it as a civil war. The unity government doesn't talk of it as a civil war," Hadley said.
"You have not yet had a situation also where you have two clearly defined and opposing groups vying not only for power but for territory." But he added: "We're clearly in a new phase characterized by an increase in sectarian violence that requires us to adapt to that new phase."
CNN, 28/11/06
Iraq approaching 'Saigon moment'
Iraq may be getting close to what Americans call "the Saigon moment", the time when it becomes evident to all that the government is expiring. "They say that the killings and kidnappings are being carried out by men in police uniforms and with police vehicles," the Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said to me with a despairing laugh this summer. "But everybody in Baghdad knows that the killers and kidnappers are real policemen."
It is getting worse. The Iraqi army and police are not loyal to the state. If the US army decides to confront the Shia militias it could well find Shia military units from the Iraqi army cutting the main American supply route between Kuwait and Baghdad.
Independent, 28/11/06
UK could be in Iraq for ten years
The final withdrawal of British forces from Iraq will not take place until the US pulls out, and that could be another decade, the government indicated yesterday, amid hopes thousands of troops will return to the UK next year.
Des Browne, the Defence Secretary, repeated predictions that Iraqi security forces would be able to take control of Basra next year. And that hand-over, he said, will allow a major cut in British troop numbers in Iraq, currently about 7,200.
"Even when all the provinces are handed over, we will still be providing a force to mentor and back up the Iraqi army and police, and to protect coalition supply routes," Mr Browne said. That commitment to maintain supply routes from the Persian Gulf coast to US forces in Baghdad and central Iraq effectively ties the final British pull-out to a US withdrawal.
Mr Brown even appeared to suggest that British forces could be in Iraq a decade from now. "I am not at this stage seeking to set out what the level of troop deployment will be in five or ten years," he said.
The Scotsman, 28/11/06
Iran will help if occupiers withdraw
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday Iran was ready to help the United States and Britain in Iraq but only if they pledged to change their attitude and withdraw their troops. The remark comes amid growing calls for Washington to engage Iraq's neighbors, Iran and Syria, to help prevent Iraq plunging into civil war.
"The Iranian nation is ready to help you get out of that swamp [in Iraq] on one condition ... you should pledge to correct your attitude," Ahmadinejad said in a televized speech to a parade of the Basij religious militia.
Daily Star, Lebanon, 27/11/06
Seven British soldiers injured
Seven British soldiers were injured when members of a local militia attacked their military base in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, a spokesman for the British forces said in a statement Sunday. The militants launched missiles at the military base at Shatt Al-Arab Hotel, in the center of Basra causing injuries to seven British servicemen. The soldiers were taken for treatment to a British field hospital in Al-Shuaiba area, south of Basra.
British soldiers and their headquarters are constantly the target of rocket attacks and armed clashes, the last of which took place last week when a soldier was killed in an armed clash west of Basra
Kuwait News Agency, 26/11/06
Mahdi army take over TV station
Followers of militant Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr took over state-run television Saturday to denounce the Iraqi government, label Sunnis "terrorists" and issue what appeared to many viewers as a call to arms.
The two-hour broadcast from a community gathering in the heart of the Shiite militia stronghold of Sadr City included three members of al-Sadr's parliamentary bloc, who took questions from outraged residents demanding revenge for a series of car bombings that killed some 200 people Thursday. Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia controls wide swaths of the capital, his politicians are the backbone of the Cabinet and his followers are deeply entrenched in the Iraqi security forces.
Militia leaders told supporters Saturday to prepare for a fresh wave of incursions into Sunni neighborhoods that would begin as soon as the curfew ends Monday, according to Sadr City residents. Several members of the Mahdi Army boasted they were distributing police uniforms throughout Shiite neighborhoods to allow greater freedom of movement.
Sacramento Bee, 26/11/06
Crowd stones Iraq PM's motorcade
The motorcade of Iraq's Prime Minister has been pelted with stones by fellow Shiites in a Baghdad slum when he paid respects to some of the 200 who died there last week. The anger in Sadr City, stronghold of the Medhi Army Shiite militia, boiled over on the third day of a curfew imposed on the capital by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's US-backed national unity coalition as it scrambled desperately to stop popular passions exploding into all-out civil war between Shiites and the Sunni minority.
"It's all your fault!" one man shouted as, in unprecedented scenes, a crowd began to surge around Mr Maliki. Men and youths then jeered and jostled as his armoured convoy edged through the throng away from a mourning ceremony for one of the 202 victims of Thursday's multiple car bomb attack in Sadr City.
ABC News, 27/11/06
Pressure on Maliki over Bush meeting
Iraq's Shiite prime minister, struggling to prevent sectarian violence from sending Iraq into full-fledged civil war, is facing strong criticism from top Shiite and Sunni Arab leaders alike as he prepares for a summit with President Bush next week.
On Saturday, a prominent Sunni religious leader warned that Iraq's escalating sectarian violence will spread throughout the Middle East unless the international community withdraws support for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government.
On the other side of Iraq's sectarian divide, Shiite politicians loyal to the radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have threatened to boycott parliament and the Cabinet if al-Maliki goes ahead with the planned summit in Jordan on Wednesday and Thursday. The political bloc, known as Sadrists, is a mainstay of support for al-Maliki. The White House has said the meeting is still on.
Houston Chronicle, 25/11/06
Resistance is financially self-sustaining
The insurgency in Iraq is now self-sustaining financially, raising tens of millions of dollars a year from oil smuggling, kidnapping, counterfeiting, connivance by corrupt Islamic charities and other crimes that the Iraqi government and its American patrons have been largely unable to prevent, a classified United States government report has concluded.
The report estimates that groups responsible for many insurgent and terrorist attacks are raising $70 million to $200 million a year from illegal activities. It says $25 million to $100 million of that comes from oil smuggling and other criminal activity involving the state-owned oil industry, aided by "corrupt and complicit" Iraqi officials.
The report offers little hope that much can be done, at least soon, to choke off insurgent revenues. For one thing, it acknowledges how little the American authorities in Iraq know - three and a half years after the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein - about crucial aspects of insurgent operations. For another, it paints an almost despairing picture of the Iraqi government's ability, or willingness, to take steps to tamp down the insurgency's financing.
New York Times, 28/11/06
White House still considering Iran strike
The Democratic victories this month led to a surge of calls for the Administration to begin direct talks with Iran, in part to get its help in settling the conflict in Iraq. But many in the White House and the Pentagon insist that getting tough with Iran is the only way to salvage Iraq.
"They believe that by tipping over Iran they would recover their losses in Iraq-like doubling your bet. It would be an attempt to revive the concept of spreading democracy in the Middle East by creating one new model state." a Pentagon consultant said.
The government consultant told me, "More and more people see the weakening of Iran as the only way to save Iraq." The consultant added that, for some advocates of military action, "the goal in Iran is not regime change but a strike that will send a signal that America still can accomplish its goals. Even if it does not destroy Iran's nuclear network, there are many who think that thirty-six hours of bombing is the only way to remind the Iranians of the very high cost of going forward with the bomb-and of supporting Moqtada al-Sadr and his pro-Iran element in Iraq."
New Yorker, 27/11/06
Deadliest day yet in Baghdad
An indefinite curfew was imposed on Baghdad last night and its international airport closed after the city was convulsed by the deadliest sectarian violence since the US led war began in March 2003. Suspected Sunni-Arab militants launched a salvo of five car bombs and two mortar rounds on one of the capital's poorest neighbourhoods, the densely populated Shia slum of Sadr City.
The car bomb and mortars exploded in rapid succession leaving carnage in their wake in three street markets. At least 160 people were killed and over 257 injured. Shia militias responded immediately by launching 10 mortar rounds on Baghdad's main Sunni mosque, the Abu Hanifa mosque, blowing a hole in the dome, killing one person and wounding 14 others. Rounds were also fired at the headquarters of the country's top Sunni organisation, the Association of Muslim Scholars, which has close contacts with the insurgents.
Guardian, 24/11/06
Sunni mosques and homes attacked
Gunmen bent on revenge burned mosques and homes in a Sunni enclave of Baghdad overnight as Iraq's leaders pleaded for calm, a day after the worst bomb attack since the US invasion. Police said some 30 people were killed as suspected Shiite militiamen rampaged for hours, untroubled by a curfew enforced in the capital by US and Iraqi forces after bombs killed at least 200 people in the Shiite stronghold of Sadr City.
Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Salem al-Zobaie said four mosques and several houses were burnt in a small Sunni part of the mainly Shiite Hurriya area in north-west Baghdad. One witness said 14 people were killed in his mosque during Friday prayers.
ABC News, 25/11/06
Strains between Shia and US
Relations between the US and the majority Shia community, already under strain after American officials demanded that the Shia premier, Nouri al-Maliki, rein in death squads run by the interior ministry and make concessions to the Sunni opposition, was put under further pressure with a raid carried out on Sadr City by US and Iraqi government forces.
The operation left four men dead, eight injured and five taken prisoner all militia fighters, according to the Americans. The local people, however, claim that some of those killed and injured were civilians. he raid was the fourth in six days on the neighbourhood by the Americans. The US military accuses Sadr's Mehdi Army of having kidnapped Ahmed al-Taayie, a 41-year-old naturalised American of Iraqi descent serving with US forces in the country.
Some of those killed and injured during the American raid yesterday were travelling in a mini-van. The US military maintained that the vehicle was fired upon after showing "hostile intent". However, Captain Mohammed Ishmail, of the Iraqi police, insisted the people in the van were itinerant labourers on their way to seek casual work.
Independent, 24/11/06